first hike will be, and what will follow it, is still unclear. Markets are pricing in a 50-basis point, or 0.5%, rate increase sometime in March of 2022, but have not reached any consensus on further rises (2021, Reinicke).
The Federal Reserve held interest rates low and pumped more than $1 trillion into the economy, and growth rebounded after the slump of 2020. The benchmark S&P 500 stock index duly soared. But sky-high inflation has caused the Fed to sharply scale back its bond purchases, and eye up a number of interest-rate rises next year. Markets expect the central bank to start hiking in March of 2022, given it signaled that it's likely to raise rates three times in 2022. Over the last 30 years, the Fed has embarked on a rate-hiking cycle four times, according to FactSet figures shared with Insider. The data company defines a cycle as a run of four rate increases, made at no more than six-month intervals. On average, the S&P 500 has moved 1.8% lower in the three months after the first hike. But it has then gained to stand 4.6%
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