percentage points through the first half of 2022 and the markets have been pricing in more aggressive rate increases. As a result, mortgage rates have been volatile over the past few weeks but have increased from 3.8% in the first quarter to 5.3% in the second quarter of 2022. We forecast 30-year fixed-rates to average 5% in 2022 and rise to 5.1% in 2023. House price appreciation is slowing to a more moderate growth rate and we expect price growth to be 12.8% and 4.0% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The rise in mortgage rates along with house price appreciation is leading to affordability challenges and causing a slowdown in the housing market. Both existing and new home sales have slowed in the latest surveys. Total home sales are down 17% since the beginning of the year. We expect housing demand to moderate and forecast home sales to slow to 6 million in 2022 and 5.4 million in 2023. Given the house price growth and home sales expectation, we expect home purchase mortgage originations to be $2.0 trillion in 2022, slowing to $1.9 trillion in 2023. With mortgage rates expected to continue to rise, we forecast refinance activity to slow with refinance originations declining from $2.8 trillion in 2021 to $885 billion in 2022 and $463 billion in 2023. Overall, we forecast total originations to decline from the high of $4.8 trillion in 2021 to $2.8 trillion in 2022 and $2.3 trillion in 2023 (2022, Freddie Mac).
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